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How
Does Computation Affect our Environment?
Some familiar and less familiar examples:

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Moore's Law. In 1964, Gordon Moore,
co-founder of Intel, noted that CMOS transistor density doubles
reliably every 18-24 months. In 1999, Ray Kurzweil
noted this doubling trend has held for at least 110 years. What
new products and services will this enable in 2015? In 2025? |
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Dickerson's Law. In 1977, Richard Dickerson,
professor of physical chemistry at Caltech, noted that solved protein
crystal structures had risen from one in 1961 to 23. He published
a simple exponential formula which predicted that by March 2001,
scientists would have solved 3-D structures for more than 12,000
proteins. He was only 57 short of the actual number. What other
physical processes are so predictably computation dependent? |
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Smith's Law. In 1999, Alvy Ray Smith,
Microsoft graphics guru and co-founder of Pixar, said "Reality
is 80 million polygons." Joi Ito notes that
Toy Story had 5-6 million polygons per frame. Toy Story
2 had twice that. Our best digital faces today have 100 motion
control points. The actual Reality Transition may be 800 million
polygons per frame and thousands of control points. We will reach
that threshold within 15 years. What then? |
There are many other trends we could consider. Which have the most relevance
to your professional and institutional future? Come to AC2005 and make
this determination for yourself. |
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