Leading
thinkers are now asking fundamentally important questions relevant
to accelerating change. Many answers and models are conflicting,
controversial and poorly testable, at present. Yet their implications
are profound, and their insights are becoming so valuable that they
can be used in virtually every decision of our daily lives.
ASF is dedicated
to building a community for ongoing discussion of such fundamental
and future-important questions. The following are a sample of questions
central to the discussions at ACC2003. We've bolded the names of
leading thinkers presenting or presiding at ACC2003 who hold these
interests. This is by no means a complete or fully accurate list
of speaker interests, but a useful introduction to some of the conference
dialogs.
- Is there
a hidden law or at least a strong statistical preference for technological
acceleration? (Henry Adams, Eric Chaisson, Ray Kurzweil,
Hans Moravec)
- If there
is, in the least, a strong statistical preference for technological
acceleration, how may we best facilitate the emergence of positive
accelerating change? What are the great near-term and long-term
risks of technological acceleration? (Nick Bostrom,
William H. Calvin, K. Eric Drexler,
Robin Hanson, Bill Joy, Christine Peterson, Richard
Preston)
- Are there
brakes on the process of technological acceleration that we do
not yet truly appreciate? (Michael Denton, Theodore
Modis, Ilkka Tuomi)
- What brakes,
benefits, and opportunities of accelerating change are presently
underdiscussed and highly likely to emerge? What issues and scenarios
are presently overblown and unlikely to occur? (Lyle
Burkhead, Ben Goertzel)
- Is technology
becoming organic? (Brian Arthur, John McHale, Ray Kurzweil)
- Is technology
the next natural computing substrate, on course to soon model
and outstrip biology, or is this an overgeneralization of a sterlie
mechanistic-deterministic model? (John R. Koza,
Christopher Langton)
- How soon
might we develop vastly smaller and faster transformational nanotechnologies?
How will this change the nature of the future? (K. Eric
Drexler, Chris Phoenix, Mike Treder)
- How do we
keep our current nanoresearch programs on track? How do we become
execessively prepared for the next manufacturing revolution? (Christine
Peterson)
- To what extent
will we continue to merge with our technologies in coming years?
(Nick Bostrom, Rodney Brooks, Andy Clark, Ray
Kurzweil, Hans Moravec, Sherry Turkle, Natasha Vita-More,
Vernor Vinge)
- Will we perceive
a continual human-technology integration to be a desirable journey
beyond our current biological selves?
- Is our universe
life-friendly or complexity-friendly? (Paul Davies, James
N. Gardner, Martin Rees, Frank Tipler)
- Does the
universe encode or facilitate design for complex systems? (William
A. Dembski, James N. Gardner)
- Does the
universe encode or facilitate design for accelerating local computation?
(Bela Balazs, John Smart)
- Has the universe
required a long succession of singularities to create us, and,
if so, what might that tell us about our role in any coming singularities?
(Howard Bloom)
- To what extent
is there an observer-selection bias causing us to misperceive
the nature of the world? (Nick Bostrom)
- How can we
achieve the Linguistic User Interface? What must be done to achieve
it? What are the enabling technologies? (Matt Lennig)
- How do we
get wireless broadband to six billion people by 2020? What forces
are making the world ever smarter? How do we best remove U.S.
barriers to wireless and Internet development? (Alex Lightman)
- How do we
use enterprise systems and new technologies to accelerate business
process improvement? (Mark Finnern)
- What are
the possibilities of self-adaptive robotic systems for space exploration?
(James M. Crawford)
- How can we
best assess the truth or falsity of our speculations on the accelerating
future?
- How can we
best use our accelerating technologies to improve our worst global,
national, social, and personal problems?
- How may we
improve our economic, legal, and social systems to reward socially-desirable
technological innovation? (Sonia Arrison)
- Is there
a nonzero sum "arc of history" and does it tell us the
critical importance of global awareness in the modern world? (Robert
Wright)
- What are
our present opportunities to practice accelerating compassion?
(Scott A. Hunt, Paul H. Ray)
- How do we
develop greater social tools and intelligence? (Ross Mayfield,
Tim O'Reilly)
- How can we
best unleash accelerating innovation and economic productivity?
(Steve Jurvetson, Josh Wolfe)
- What are
the main bottlenecks to transformational change? (Melanie
Swan)
- To what extent
have networks become the new environment for accelerating change,
and how do we renew them over time? (Greg Papadopoulos)
- What is the
meaning of information and how do we best use it to create knowledge
in an ocean of data? (Keith Devlin)
Humanity is
engaged in a grand, accelerating adventure. If present trends continue,
in our own lifetimes we will witness more scientific, technological,
and even social learning and change than that seen over the previous
millennium.
Several physicists
of the very small structures in our universe (Steven Weinberg,
Leon Lederman) and of the very large (Stephen
Hawking, Martin Harwit) have proposed
that we may soon capture much of the essence of these two domains
in our accelerating and increasingly powerful scientific instrumentation
and simulations. If true, that may leave only the middle zone of
the very complex as our final frontier (Ian Stewart,
Paul Davies). This suggests to some that artificial
intelligences, if they emerge in the 21st century, will be engaged
in "hard problems" such as the physical basis and larger
meaning of the origin of life, the emergence of language, thought,
emotion, consciousness, and spirituality, and the future trajectory
of local intelligence.
Understanding
is of course only part of the journey. How do we help our sociotechnological
systems to strengthen our common interests, to create a continually
better, cleaner, safer, and yet more creative world for all the
minds that inhabit it? Such goals as improving ethics, compassion,
interdependence, resilience, security, risk management, and immunity
from potential catastrophes may be a function of physical intelligence,
properties that are statistically highly likely to emerge in our
coming networks, as long as we use caution and common sense.
We are still
early in asking the big questions about the accelerating future,
and in wisely guiding acceleration in our modern lives. But the
more we give ourselves permission to carefully consider these issues,
the better equipped we will be to create the daily personal and
collective futures, consistent with unavoidable accelerating trends,
that we truly desire.
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