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Slides, Audio, and Video

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Selected presentations by ASF President John Smart (email). Older ones may be found at Acceleration Watch, his personal site. See also our Articles and Books page.

Slides
Audio
Video

Slides

Feb 2018 | Centenary University (SLIDES) Tomorrow Is In Your Hands: Creating an Amazing Future (54 Slides, 55 MB). An address to students, faculty, and alums on the dynamics, opportunities, and problems of accelerating change, some recent developments in science, technology, automation, and AI, ethical and empathic technology use, a few thoughts on progress, innovation, sustainability, and entrepreneurship, and a few tools and strategies for thriving in a world of rapid change.

Sep 2017 | Conference on Complex Systems (SLIDES) Evolutionary Development: A Universal View (27 slides, 7 MB). A general systems definition of the phrase "evolutionary development", and an introduction to its application to the universe as a system. Presentation at CCS17 in the Evolution, Development, and Complexity satellite of the Evo Devo Universe community. The webpage Evolutionary Development is the academic article for this presentation.

May 2017 | Top Broker Networking Meeting (SLIDES) Accelerating Change and the Future of Risk Management (55 slides, 42 MB). The present and future of full stack risk management in a world of accelerating insuretech and technological change. Skills, tools, and strategies of adaptive foresight, for insurance broker entrepreneurs and their teams. Exponential opportunities are available, but top brokers must specialize, remain client-centric, evidence-based (predictive and people analytics) and make smart use of rapidly improving digital tools and platforms.

Jan 2017 | Navy Senior Leadership Seminar (SLIDES) Leadership of Technological Change (54 slides, 34 MB). On the challenges of leadership in an environment of growing complexity and accelerating technological change. Explores select issues in technological change, useful leadership frameworks including the three levels, intent-based leadership and the eight skills of adaptive foresight, and some tools and strategies for leading and managing small teams.

Oct 2016 | eMetrics Summit NY (SLIDES) Smart Agents and the Future of Marketing (40 slides). A big picture look at the bright and disruptive future of Smart Agents, for marketers and analysts. We’ll consider the future of values marketing from an agent perspective, and look at opportunities and pitfalls in agent use in eight categories: Consumer Goods and Services, Media and Education, Social, Financial and Productivity, Health, Political, Environmental, and Security Agents. We'll end with a few action items for analyst ROI with respect to agent tracking and use in the near term.

Oct 2016 | Bodø Ideas Fest (SLIDES) Bodø, the Future, and You: Better Businesses and Better Lives (39 slides). Futurist keynote for the Smart City and Open Innovation conference in Bodø, Norway. An introduction to accelerating digital trends and the modern innovation environment, and a survey of large and small entrepreneurship ideas for founders, in eight key categories: Infotech, Economy, Education, Health and Families, Transportation, Tourism and Leisure, Urban Environment, and Resources. See their idea collection platform (Norwegian only)

Aug 2016 | Virtual Reality LA (SLIDES) The Future of Immersion: Opportunities for Entrepreneurs (32 slides). A presentation on the future of immersion (VR and AR) and more generally, MR, which is short for (Computer-) Mediated Reality. Some amazing things are coming. Still, the traditional views on immersion, which are heavy on visual VR and AR, seem less compelling for the next few years, than audio AR and smart agent MR. That's where I think the biggest current immersion opportunities presently lie. See my Medium series on smart agents for details.

Jul 2016 | Bay Area Futurists (SLIDES) Agents, AI and the Good Society (42 slides). 70 minute discussion of smart agents, artificial and natural intelligence (deep learning-based AI), and how to we can use them to create a Good Society. Smart agents and their AI/NI are the most personal and empowering software we'll see in the next generation. See my Medium series on smart agents for details. Leaders need to guide these accelerating technologies toward protopias (measurably better futures). There are plenty of dystopias to avoid and escape along the way.

May 2015 | Houston Foresight Gathering (SLIDES) Technology Acceleration (107 slides GSlides). Preview of my upcoming course in Technology Acceleration for the U Houston MS in Strategic Foresight. Syllabus covers six units over six weeks, Universal Acceleration; Technology, Wealth, & Social Acceleration; Quantification, Simulation and Foresight; Globalization, Societal Convergence, & Deceleration; Bio-Inspired AI and Intelligent Agents; Social Challenges & Failure States.

Mar 2015 | Five Eyes Workshop 2015 (SLIDES) Intelligence Education in 2020s (44 slides PDF, 4MB) Accelerating digital change, leadership using the eight skills of adaptive foresight, and issues, trends, opportunities, and challenges for intelligence leaders and educators in the 2020s. Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, U MS.

Sep 2014 | ASI Power Summit 2014 (SLIDES) From Push to Pull: Seven Trends Shaping the Future of Specialty Advertising (19 slides, 4MB) Strategic implications of accelerating digital change, the eight skills of foresight practice and seven trends and their implications for advertising specialty suppliers and distributors.

Jul 2013 | World Future Society 2013 (SLIDES) Leadership of Technological Change (35 slides, 5MB) Intro to a strategically useful theory of change and foresight, a preview of coming disruptions, opportunities and threats in ten key areas of technology change, some great books in each of these areas, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change. For organizational leaders and self-leaders (folks who vision, prioritize, and plan their personal futures).

Apr 2013 | MITRE (SLIDES) Leadership of Technological Change (75 slides PDF, 5 MB) Intro to a strategically useful theory of change for leaders, a brief survey of technical trends, coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats of interest to the government R&D leader, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change. For the largest and most experienced FFRDC managing R&D for the federal government.

Jan 2013 | West 2013 (SLIDES) Leadership of Technological Change (33 slides + 15 backup, 5 MB) Intro to a strategically useful theory of change for leaders, a brief survey of coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats of interest to the defense leader, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change. Keynote at the USNI West Conference. For defense, IT, and Navy leaders.

Jun 2012 | Singularity University (SLIDES) Global Grand Challenges (24 slides, 2 MB) Tips on gaining strategic vision, self-knowledge, tools, and network behaviors to address global grand challenges. Ideas on finding and selecting the best benefit-cost ratio challenge for each student's skills, motivation, and world view. For SU GSP2012 students.

Apr 2012 | Tedx Del Mar (SLIDES) Ten Areas of Technological Change (14 slides, 2 MB) Outline of major changes and continuities leaders can expect over the next twenty years in ten key domains of technological change, with strategic implications and reading list. See also readahead article for this talk: Ten Areas of Tech Change (4 pages, Web or PDF).

July 2011 I COSMOS Program (SLIDES) Evolutionary Development, Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and Values of Progress (56 slides, 5 MB). An introduction to evolutionary and developmental processes, accelerating change, scenarios for our digital future, and an outline of several evolutionary and developmental values and potential measurements of the abstract and slippery concept of social "progress." For high school students interested in science, tech, engineering, and math (STEM) fields.

Oct 2010 | Immersive Technologies (SLIDES) Our Immersive Future: Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting For (18 slides, 2 MB). Thoughts on the ten year future of the videophone, wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables, Memeshows, and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization, intimacy, collaboration, civics, education, addiction management, and decisionmaking. For technologists and the general public.

Oct 2010 | Royal Society, Chicheley Hall, UK. (SLIDES) The Transcension Hypothesis: Cosmic Censorship of Advanced Civilizations (14 slides, 2 MB). Overview of my 2002 Fermi Paradox paper, which argues that advanced civilizations are developmentally constrained to go to inner space, not outer space, as they gain complexity. Explores the implications of accelerating change, miniaturization, ephemeralization, densification, and simulation for our civilization from a long-term universal reference frame. See The Transcension Hypothesis, 2011, for an update of the 2002 article, based on this presentation.

Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (SLIDES) The Television Will Be Revolutionized (16 Slides 1MB). Overview of perhaps the most important media change of our generation: true internet TV, with open video markup language standards. For more, see this 2-page abstract, or the full 48-page whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.

Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (SLIDES) The Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal (22 slides, 2 MB). Applying evolutionary and developmental thinking to near-term web developments delivering the first real version of our digital self. Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin, iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.

Mar 2010 | POST Command College. (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (142 slides, 9 MB) Understanding and guiding accelerating change, factors in improving technology foresight. Daylong workshop for law enforcement leadership.

Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (SLIDES) Metaverse 2.0: The Informational, Social and Cognitive Heart of Our Accelerating Future (40 slides, 2 MB). Intro to accelerating change, the NISCB tech pentad, and some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social and Cognitive developments: Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont Networks.

Sep 2009 | Santa Fe Institute Biz Net. (SLIDES) Evo Devo Universe? A Speculative Framework for Thinking About Unpredictable and Predictable Aspects of Universal Change (125 slides, 7MB). Where does universal intelligence go in the long run? In the short run? What aspects of the future seem not evolutionary, but developmental? How do we get to a science of prediction?

Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (SLIDES) Evo Devo Universe?: A Speculative Framework for Thinking About the Future (124 slides, 7MB). What is predictable in universal change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering, and managing the future.

Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame. (SLIDES) Foresight Development in a World of Accelerating Change (69 slides, 3 MB). Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability in a world of accelerating technological change. For business students.

Jul 2008 | World Future Society. (SLIDES) Selling and Teaching Foresight Development (115 slides, 7 MB). How to pitch the dean on starting a required (core) undergrad course in FD, and overview of ASF's FD course. For would-be educators.

Jul 2008 | Mindshare LA. (SLIDES) Five Questions (41 slides, 3 MB). Conjectures on the universe, our relation to the universe, and the importance of foresight/futures work. For a general audience.

Jul 2008 | Army Science Board. (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (89 slides, 7 MB). Unclassified 1.5 hr brief on trends and scenarios in accelerating change. For advisors to senior Army staff.

Jul 2007 | Korean Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology. (SLIDES) The Limits of BIology, the Promise of Technology (107 slides, 9 MB). Arguments why nanotech, mechtech and infotech will have far broader social impacts than biotech in coming years. For undergrads.

Apr 2007 | National Air and Space Intelligence Center. (SLIDES) Adapting to the Future (249 slides, 19 MB). Daylong workshop on guiding accelerating change for strategic advantage. For NASIC staff.

May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (SLIDES) Searching for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change (90 slides, 8 MB). An introduction to the investigation of accelerating change from a universal perspective.

Jan 2006 | Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14. (SLIDES) Accelerating Change Toolkit (147 slides, 6 MB). Assumptions, processes, studies, skillsets, trends, and scenarios in accelerating change. For physician-innovators.

Nov 2005 | Tamkang University. (SLIDES) How to be a Strategic Futurist (169 slides, 6 MB). An integral approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating future. For futurists.

Oct 2005 | Army War College. (SLIDES) How to be a Strategic Futurist (160 slides, 6 MB). An integral approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating future. For military leaders.

Jun 2005 | University of Advancing Technology. (SLIDES) How to be a Tech Futurist (111 slides, 4 MB). Some considerations for predicting, managing, and creating in a world of accelerating change.

Apr 2005 | Las Vegas Future Salon. (SLIDES) Catalyzing the Symbiotic Age (114 slides, 6 MB). Discovering, managing, and creating the next great emergences in human-machine symbiosis.

Apr 2005 | U of Houston, Studies of the Future MS Program. (SLIDES) Online Community Design (53 slides, 3 MB). A survey of current tools, tips, and techniques for effective online community design and management.

Mar 2005 | FBI Futures Working Group. (SLIDES) Security and Policing in 2015 (114 slides, 2 MB). Considerations for FBI leadership and innovation in homeland security and policing in the coming decade.

Nov 2004 | Accelerating Change Conference: The Symbiotic Age (35 slides, 3 MB). Accelerating change, the CUI, avatars, personality capture, and trends in human-machine symbiosis.

Oct 2004 | Space Frontier Conference. (SLIDES) Exploring Micro and Macro Frontiers (61 slides, 3 MB). Advancing research in the amazing world of inner space leads us to greater achievements in outer space.

Oct 2004 | World Technology Summit. (SLIDES) Intro to Accelerating Change (34 slides, 2 MB). A brief overview of accelerating change for a panel convened by the World Technology Network.

Apr 2004 | L.A. Future Salon. (SLIDES) Singularity Economics (96 slides, 7 MB). Thoughts on the history of acceleration, evolutionary development, hierarchical emergence, autonomy and economics.

Audio

Jul 2016 | Bay Area Futurists (AUDIO) Agents, AI and the Good Society (70 mins). A discussion of smart agents, artificial and natural intelligence (deep learning-based AI), and how to we can use them to create a Good Society. Smart agents and their AI/NI are the most personal and empowering software we'll see in the next generation. See my Medium series on smart agents for details. Leaders need to guide these accelerating technologies toward protopias (measurably better futures). There are plenty of dystopias to avoid and escape along the way.

May 2016 | Dubai Eye - Kaleidoscope (AUDIO) Looking to the Future (65 mins). Rohan Roberts of Intelligent Optimism, Lara Matossian of SciFest Global, and John Smart on the many ways we use foresight to acheive better futures. Introduces Foresight University (4U), The Foresight Guide and Futureworthy, 4U's coming platform for crowd-evaluated and future-worthy projects, products, and services, to help entrepreneurs do good, make money, and guide us to better futures.

Aug 2011 | The Speculist - The World Transformed 2 Series (AUDIO) Human Destiny Transformed (120 minutes) Speculist hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart, Venessa Meimis, Robin Hanson, and Kevin Kelly on human destiny (where our civilization may be headed) and how having a Big Picture view can empower us in our daily lives. Enjoy!

Aug 2009 | The Speculist - The World Transformed Series (AUDIO) Acceleration, Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 1 (90 minutes) Acceleration, Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 2 (85 minutes) Speculist hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart for a speculative Big Picture discussion of the long-term future of human civilization. Enjoy!

May 2009 | WBAI. (AUDIO) Six Developments in Accelerating Change (mp3 audio, 29 mins, 13 MB) Equal Time for Free Thought host Arnell Dowret interviews John Smart on Global Transparency, the Humbot, the Conversational Interface, the Metaverse, the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm. A survey of some major and apparently developmental emergences that seem statistically likely to occur in the decades ahead. Disagree? Let us know.

Video

Oct 2016 | Bodø Ideas Fest (VIDEO) Bodø, the Future, and You: Better Businesses and Better Lives (60 mins). 39 slides here. Futurist keynote for the Smart City and Open Innovation conference in Bodø, Norway. An introduction to accelerating digital trends and the modern innovation environment, and a survey of large and small entrepreneurship ideas for founders, in eight key categories: Infotech, Economy, Education, Health and Families, Transportation, Tourism and Leisure, Urban Environment, and Resources. See their idea collection platform (Norwegian only)

Aug 2016 | Virtual Reality LA (VIDEO) The Future of Immersion: Opportunities for Entrepreneurs (30 mins). A keynote on the future of immersion (VR and AR) and more generally, MR, which is short for (Computer-) Mediated Reality. Some amazing things are coming. See my Medium series on smart agents for details.

Jan 2013 | West 2013 Leadership of Technological Change (37 mins). Intro to a strategically useful theory of change for leaders, a selection of major coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats due to accelerating technological change, and strategies for innovation and management of technological change that can be employed by middle and senior mgmt. Concludes with a Navy brand vision for an "Open Oceans GIS Platform". Keynote at the USNI West Conference. See also slides.

Oct 2010 | Immersive Technology Summit 2010 (VIDEO) Our Immersive Future (18 mins). Thoughts on the ten year future of the videophone, wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables, Memeshows, and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization, intimacy, collaboration, civics, education, addiction management, and decisionmaking. For technologists and the general public. See also the deck of 18 slides for this presentation.

Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (VIDEO) The Television Will Be Revolutionized (20 mins). Intro to perhaps the most important media change of our generation: true internet TV, with open video markup language standards. For more, see this 2-page abstract, deck of 16 slides, or 48-page whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.

Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (VIDEO) The Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal (22 mins) and Panel Q&A (23 mins). Thoughts on near-term web developments delivering the first real version of our "digital self." Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin, iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.

Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (VIDEO) Metaverse 2.0: The Informational, Social and Cognitive Heart of our Accelerating Future (32 mins). Intro to accelerating change, the NISCB tech pentad, and some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social and Cognitive developments: Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont Networks.

Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (VIDEO) Evo Devo Universe? Part 1 (55 mins). Evo Devo Universe? Part 2 (52 mins). What is predictable in universal change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering, and managing the future.

Feb 2009 | BIL 2009. (VIDEO) Evo Devo Universe? (23 mins). A brief introduction to the concepts of universal evolution and universal development, and some implications of an evo devo universe to humanity, should this model be supported by future science.

Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame. (VIDEO) Foresight Development in a World of Accelerating Change (1 hr, 27 mins). Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability in a world of accelerating technological change. For business students.

Oct 2008 | Evo Devo Universe 2008. (VIDEO) Evo Devo Universe 2008 (3 mins). A brief video intro to the First International Conference on the Evolution and Development of the Universe (Paris, France).

Oct 2008 | Memebox Scenario. (VIDEO) The Potential of 'Symbiont Networks' (3 mins). A symbiont network is a coming personal networking platform, possible with today's 4G networks, that will allow far more lasting and fine-grained behavioral change for individuals than is presently possible, and a whole new level of collective intelligence and adaptiveness for groups of cognitively diverse people who are connected as a symbiont.

Feb 2008 | Metaverse Roadmap Summit (VIDEO) The Benefits and Challenges of Coming Metaverse Technologies (5 mins). Metaverse U's Henrik Bennetsen interviewing John Smart on the future of metaverse technologies: virtual worlds, mirror worlds, augmented reality, lifelogging, and other intimate fusions of our physical and digital worlds.

Oct 2007 | Singularity Summit 2007. (VIDEO) Speaking to the Web: A Conversation with John Smart. (17 minutes). Accelerating change, and the unique capacities and future of inner space. Autonomy trends, the coming conversational interface, the cybertwin, and the valuecosm.

May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (VIDEO) Searching for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change (22 mins). An introduction to the investigation accelerating change from a universal perspective.

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