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Selected presentations by ASF President John Smart (email).
Older ones may be found at Acceleration Watch, his personal site. See also our Articles
and Books page.
Slides
Audio
Video
Slides
May 2018 | JAG Training Symposium (SLIDES) Foresight and Leadership in a VUCA World (62 Slides, 65 MB). An address to Navy JAG leaders on dynamics, opportunities, and problems of accelerating change, recent developments in science, technology, automation, and AI, ethical and empathic technology use, and a few complexity-based leadership models and strategies for thriving in a world of rapid change.
Feb 2018 | Centenary University (SLIDES) Tomorrow Is In Your Hands: Creating an Amazing Future (54 Slides, 55 MB). An address to students, faculty, and alums on the dynamics, opportunities, and problems of accelerating change, some recent developments in science, technology, automation, and AI, ethical and empathic technology use, a few thoughts on progress, innovation, sustainability, and entrepreneurship, and a few tools and strategies for thriving in a world of rapid change.
Sep 2017 | Conference on Complex Systems (SLIDES) Evolutionary Development: A Universal View (27 slides, 7 MB). A general systems definition of the phrase "evolutionary development", and an introduction to its application to the universe as a system. Presentation at CCS17 in the Evolution, Development, and Complexity satellite of the Evo Devo Universe community. The webpage Evolutionary Development is the academic article for this presentation.
May 2017 | Top Broker Networking Meeting (SLIDES) Accelerating
Change and the Future of Risk Management (55 slides, 42 MB). The present and future of full stack risk
management in a world of accelerating insuretech and technological
change. Skills, tools, and strategies of adaptive foresight, for
insurance broker entrepreneurs and their teams. Exponential opportunities
are available, but top brokers must specialize, remain client-centric,
evidence-based (predictive and people analytics) and make smart
use of rapidly improving digital tools and platforms.
Jan 2017 | Navy Senior Leadership Seminar (SLIDES)
Leadership
of Technological Change (54 slides, 34 MB). On the challenges
of leadership in an environment of growing complexity and accelerating
technological change. Explores select issues in technological
change, useful leadership frameworks including the three levels,
intent-based leadership and the eight skills of adaptive foresight,
and some tools and strategies for leading and managing small teams.
Oct 2016 | eMetrics Summit NY (SLIDES) Smart
Agents and the Future of Marketing (40 slides). A big picture
look at the bright and disruptive future of Smart Agents, for
marketers and analysts. We’ll consider the future of values
marketing from an agent perspective, and look at opportunities
and pitfalls in agent use in eight categories: Consumer Goods
and Services, Media and Education, Social, Financial and Productivity,
Health, Political, Environmental, and Security Agents. We'll end
with a few action items for analyst ROI with respect to agent
tracking and use in the near term.
Oct 2016 | Bodø Ideas Fest (SLIDES) Bodø,
the Future, and You: Better Businesses and Better Lives (39
slides). Futurist keynote for the Smart City and Open Innovation
conference in Bodø, Norway. An introduction to accelerating
digital trends and the modern innovation environment, and a survey
of large and small entrepreneurship ideas for founders, in eight
key categories: Infotech, Economy, Education, Health and Families,
Transportation, Tourism and Leisure, Urban Environment, and Resources.
See their idea collection platform
(Norwegian only)
Aug 2016 | Virtual Reality LA (SLIDES) The
Future of Immersion: Opportunities for Entrepreneurs (32 slides).
A presentation on the future of immersion (VR and AR) and more
generally, MR, which is short for (Computer-) Mediated Reality.
Some amazing things are coming. Still, the traditional views on
immersion, which are heavy on visual VR and AR, seem less compelling
for the next few years, than audio AR and smart agent MR. That's
where I think the biggest current immersion opportunities presently
lie. See my
Medium series on smart agents for details.
Jul 2016 | Bay Area Futurists (SLIDES) Agents,
AI and the Good Society (42 slides). 70 minute discussion
of smart agents, artificial and natural intelligence (deep learning-based
AI), and how to we can use them to create a Good Society. Smart
agents and their AI/NI are the most personal and empowering software
we'll see in the next generation. See my
Medium series on smart agents for details. Leaders need to
guide these accelerating technologies toward protopias (measurably
better futures). There are plenty of dystopias to avoid and escape
along the way.
May 2015 | Houston Foresight Gathering (SLIDES)
Technology
Acceleration (107 slides GSlides). Preview of my upcoming
course in Technology Acceleration for the U Houston MS in Strategic
Foresight. Syllabus
covers six units over six weeks, Universal Acceleration; Technology,
Wealth, & Social Acceleration; Quantification, Simulation
and Foresight; Globalization, Societal Convergence, & Deceleration;
Bio-Inspired AI and Intelligent Agents; Social Challenges &
Failure States.
Mar 2015 | Five Eyes Workshop 2015 (SLIDES) Intelligence
Education in 2020s (44 slides PDF, 4MB) Accelerating digital
change, leadership using the eight skills of adaptive foresight,
and issues, trends, opportunities, and challenges for intelligence
leaders and educators in the 2020s. Center for Intelligence and
Security Studies, U MS.
Sep 2014 | ASI Power Summit 2014 (SLIDES) From
Push to Pull: Seven Trends Shaping the Future of Specialty Advertising
(19 slides, 4MB) Strategic implications of accelerating digital
change, the eight skills of foresight practice and seven trends
and their implications for advertising specialty suppliers and
distributors.
Jul 2013 | World Future Society 2013 (SLIDES) Leadership
of Technological Change (35 slides, 5MB) Intro to a strategically
useful theory of change and foresight, a preview of coming disruptions,
opportunities and threats in ten key areas of technology change,
some great books in each of these areas, and strategies for innovation
and management of technological change. For organizational leaders
and self-leaders (folks who vision, prioritize, and plan their
personal futures).
Apr 2013 | MITRE (SLIDES) Leadership
of Technological Change (75 slides PDF, 5 MB) Intro to a strategically
useful theory of change for leaders, a brief survey of technical
trends, coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats of interest
to the government R&D leader, and strategies for innovation
and management of technological change. For the largest and most
experienced FFRDC managing R&D for the federal government.
Jan 2013 | West 2013 (SLIDES) Leadership
of Technological Change (33 slides + 15 backup, 5 MB) Intro
to a strategically useful theory of change for leaders, a brief
survey of coming opportunities, disruptions, and threats of interest
to the defense leader, and strategies for innovation and management
of technological change. Keynote at the USNI West Conference.
For defense, IT, and Navy leaders.
Jun 2012 | Singularity University (SLIDES) Global
Grand Challenges (24 slides, 2 MB) Tips on gaining strategic
vision, self-knowledge, tools, and network behaviors to address
global grand challenges. Ideas on finding and selecting the best
benefit-cost ratio challenge for each student's skills, motivation,
and world view. For SU GSP2012 students.
Apr 2012 | Tedx Del Mar (SLIDES) Ten
Areas of Technological Change (14 slides, 2 MB) Outline of
major changes and continuities leaders can expect over the next
twenty years in ten key domains of technological change, with
strategic implications and reading list. See also readahead article
for this talk: Ten
Areas of Tech Change (4 pages, Web or PDF).
July 2011 I COSMOS Program (SLIDES)
Evolutionary
Development, Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and Values
of Progress (56 slides, 5 MB). An introduction to evolutionary
and developmental processes, accelerating change, scenarios for
our digital future, and an outline of several evolutionary and
developmental values and potential measurements of the abstract
and slippery concept of social "progress." For high
school students interested in science, tech, engineering, and
math (STEM) fields.
Oct 2010 | Immersive Technologies (SLIDES) Our
Immersive Future: Twelve Tech and Social Developments Worth Fighting
For (18 slides, 2 MB). Thoughts on the ten year future of
the videophone, wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables,
Memeshows, and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization,
intimacy, collaboration, civics, education, addiction management,
and decisionmaking. For technologists and the general public.
Oct 2010 | Royal Society, Chicheley Hall, UK. (SLIDES)
The
Transcension Hypothesis: Cosmic Censorship of Advanced Civilizations
(14 slides, 2 MB). Overview of my 2002
Fermi Paradox paper, which argues that advanced civilizations
are developmentally constrained to go to inner space, not outer
space, as they gain complexity. Explores the implications of accelerating
change, miniaturization, ephemeralization, densification, and
simulation for our civilization from a long-term universal reference
frame. See The
Transcension Hypothesis, 2011, for an update of the 2002 article,
based on this presentation.
Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (SLIDES) The
Television Will Be Revolutionized (16 Slides 1MB). Overview
of perhaps the most important media change of our generation:
true internet TV, with open video markup language standards. For
more, see this 2-page
abstract, or the full 48-page
whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.
Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (SLIDES) The
Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal (22 slides, 2
MB). Applying evolutionary and developmental thinking to near-term
web developments delivering the first real version of our digital
self. Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin,
iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.
Mar 2010 | POST Command College. (SLIDES) Adapting
to the Future (142 slides, 9 MB) Understanding and guiding
accelerating change, factors in improving technology foresight.
Daylong workshop for law enforcement leadership.
Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (SLIDES) Metaverse
2.0: The Informational, Social and Cognitive Heart of Our Accelerating
Future (40 slides, 2 MB). Intro to accelerating change, the
NISCB tech pentad, and some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social
and Cognitive developments: Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont
Networks.
Sep 2009 | Santa Fe Institute Biz Net. (SLIDES)
Evo
Devo Universe? A Speculative Framework for Thinking About Unpredictable
and Predictable Aspects of Universal Change (125 slides, 7MB).
Where does universal intelligence go in the long run? In the short
run? What aspects of the future seem not evolutionary, but developmental?
How do we get to a science of prediction?
Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (SLIDES) Evo
Devo Universe?: A Speculative Framework for Thinking About the
Future (124 slides, 7MB). What is predictable in universal
change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering,
and managing the future.
Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame.
(SLIDES) Foresight
Development in a World of Accelerating Change (69 slides,
3 MB). Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability
in a world of accelerating technological change. For business
students.
Jul 2008 | World Future Society. (SLIDES) Selling
and Teaching Foresight Development (115 slides, 7 MB). How
to pitch the dean on starting a required (core) undergrad course
in FD, and overview of ASF's FD course. For would-be educators.
Jul 2008 | Mindshare LA. (SLIDES) Five
Questions (41 slides, 3 MB). Conjectures
on the universe, our relation to the universe, and the importance
of foresight/futures work. For a general audience.
Jul 2008 | Army Science Board. (SLIDES) Adapting
to the Future (89 slides, 7 MB). Unclassified 1.5 hr brief
on trends and scenarios in accelerating change. For advisors to
senior Army staff.
Jul 2007 | Korean Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology.
(SLIDES) The
Limits of BIology, the Promise of Technology (107 slides,
9 MB). Arguments why nanotech, mechtech and infotech will have
far broader social impacts than biotech in coming years. For undergrads.
Apr 2007 | National Air and Space Intelligence Center.
(SLIDES) Adapting
to the Future (249 slides, 19 MB). Daylong workshop on guiding
accelerating change for strategic advantage. For NASIC staff.
May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (SLIDES) Searching
for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change
(90 slides, 8 MB). An introduction to the investigation of accelerating
change from a universal perspective.
Jan 2006 | Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14. (SLIDES)
Accelerating
Change Toolkit (147 slides, 6 MB). Assumptions, processes,
studies, skillsets, trends, and scenarios in accelerating change.
For physician-innovators.
Nov 2005 | Tamkang University. (SLIDES) How
to be a Strategic Futurist (169 slides, 6 MB). An integral
approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating
future. For futurists.
Oct 2005 | Army War College. (SLIDES) How
to be a Strategic Futurist (160 slides, 6 MB). An integral
approach to predicting, managing, and creating our accelerating
future. For military leaders.
Jun 2005 | University of Advancing Technology. (SLIDES)
How
to be a Tech Futurist (111 slides, 4 MB). Some considerations
for predicting, managing, and creating in a world of accelerating
change.
Apr 2005 | Las Vegas Future Salon. (SLIDES) Catalyzing
the Symbiotic Age (114 slides, 6 MB). Discovering, managing,
and creating the next great emergences in human-machine symbiosis.
Apr
2005 | U of Houston, Studies of the Future MS Program. (SLIDES)
Online
Community Design (53 slides, 3 MB). A survey of current tools,
tips, and techniques for effective online community design and
management.
Mar
2005 | FBI Futures Working Group. (SLIDES) Security
and Policing in 2015 (114 slides, 2 MB). Considerations for
FBI leadership and innovation in homeland security and policing
in the coming decade.
Nov 2004 | Accelerating Change Conference: The
Symbiotic Age (35 slides, 3 MB). Accelerating change, the
CUI, avatars, personality capture, and trends in human-machine
symbiosis.
Oct 2004 | Space Frontier Conference. (SLIDES) Exploring
Micro and Macro Frontiers (61 slides, 3 MB). Advancing research
in the amazing world of inner space leads us to greater achievements
in outer space.
Oct 2004 | World Technology Summit. (SLIDES) Intro
to Accelerating Change (34 slides, 2 MB). A brief overview
of accelerating change for a panel convened by the World Technology
Network.
Apr 2004 | L.A. Future Salon. (SLIDES) Singularity
Economics (96 slides, 7 MB). Thoughts on the history of acceleration,
evolutionary development, hierarchical emergence, autonomy and
economics.
Audio
Jul 2016 | Bay Area Futurists (AUDIO)
Agents,
AI and the Good Society (70 mins). A discussion of smart agents,
artificial and natural intelligence (deep learning-based AI),
and how to we can use them to create a Good Society. Smart agents
and their AI/NI are the most personal and empowering software
we'll see in the next generation. See my
Medium series on smart agents for details. Leaders need to
guide these accelerating technologies toward protopias (measurably
better futures). There are plenty of dystopias to avoid and escape
along the way.
May 2016 | Dubai Eye - Kaleidoscope (AUDIO)
Looking
to the Future (65 mins). Rohan Roberts of Intelligent Optimism,
Lara Matossian of SciFest Global, and John Smart on the many ways
we use foresight to acheive better futures. Introduces Foresight
University (4U), The Foresight Guide and Futureworthy, 4U's coming
platform for crowd-evaluated and future-worthy projects, products,
and services, to help entrepreneurs do good, make money, and guide
us to better futures.
Aug 2011 | The Speculist - The World Transformed 2 Series
(AUDIO) Human
Destiny Transformed (120 minutes) Speculist hosts Phil Bowermaster
and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart, Venessa Meimis, Robin
Hanson, and Kevin Kelly on human destiny (where our civilization
may be headed) and how having a Big Picture view can empower us
in our daily lives. Enjoy!
Aug 2009 | The Speculist - The World Transformed Series
(AUDIO) Acceleration,
Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 1 (90 minutes) Acceleration,
Convergence, and Human Destiny - Part 2 (85 minutes) Speculist
hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon interview John Smart
for a speculative Big Picture discussion of the long-term future
of human civilization. Enjoy!
May 2009 | WBAI. (AUDIO)
Six
Developments in Accelerating Change (mp3 audio, 29 mins, 13
MB) Equal Time for Free Thought host Arnell Dowret interviews
John Smart on Global Transparency, the Humbot, the Conversational
Interface, the Metaverse, the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm. A
survey of some major and apparently developmental emergences that
seem statistically likely to occur in the decades ahead. Disagree?
Let us know.
Video
Oct 2016 | Bodø Ideas Fest (VIDEO)
Bodø, the Future,
and You: Better Businesses and Better Lives (60 mins). 39
slides here. Futurist keynote for the Smart City and Open
Innovation conference in Bodø, Norway. An introduction
to accelerating digital trends and the modern innovation environment,
and a survey of large and small entrepreneurship ideas for founders,
in eight key categories: Infotech, Economy, Education, Health
and Families, Transportation, Tourism and Leisure, Urban Environment,
and Resources. See their idea
collection platform (Norwegian only)
Aug 2016 | Virtual Reality LA (VIDEO)
The Future
of Immersion: Opportunities for Entrepreneurs (30 mins). A
keynote on the future of immersion (VR and AR) and more generally,
MR, which is short for (Computer-) Mediated Reality. Some amazing
things are coming. See my
Medium series on smart agents for details.
Jan 2013 | West 2013 Leadership
of Technological Change (37 mins). Intro to a strategically
useful theory of change for leaders, a selection of major coming
opportunities, disruptions, and threats due to accelerating technological
change, and strategies for innovation and management of technological
change that can be employed by middle and senior mgmt. Concludes
with a Navy brand vision for an "Open Oceans GIS Platform".
Keynote at the USNI West Conference. See also slides.
Oct 2010 | Immersive Technology Summit 2010 (VIDEO)
Our Immersive Future
(18 mins). Thoughts on the ten year future of the videophone,
wearable AR, wearable lifelogs, iTV, Caves, GameTables, Memeshows,
and ways to use immersive tech to improve socialization, intimacy,
collaboration, civics, education, addiction management, and decisionmaking.
For technologists and the general public. See also the deck
of 18 slides for this presentation.
Jun 2010 | TEDx Del Mar (VIDEO)
The
Television Will Be Revolutionized (20 mins). Intro to perhaps
the most important media change of our generation: true internet
TV, with open video markup language standards. For more, see this
2-page
abstract, deck
of 16 slides, or 48-page
whitepaper on the future of Internet Television. For everyone.
Mar 2010 | Dice NextTech. (VIDEO)
The Digital Self: When Social
Media Get Personal (22 mins) and Panel
Q&A (23 mins). Thoughts on near-term web developments
delivering the first real version of our "digital self."
Web 3.0, social networks, conversational interface, cybertwin,
iTV, iPad, Nexus One, etc. For IT innovators.
Dec 2009 | H+ Summit. (VIDEO)
Metaverse 2.0: The Informational,
Social and Cognitive Heart of our Accelerating Future (32
mins). Intro to accelerating change, the NISCB tech pentad, and
some potentially major Metaverse 2.0 Social and Cognitive developments:
Cybertwins, the Valuecosm, and Symbiont Networks.
Apr 2009 | Bay Area Future Salon. (VIDEO)
Evo Devo Universe? Part
1 (55 mins). Evo Devo
Universe? Part 2 (52 mins). What is predictable in universal
change? What isn't? A framework for thinking about creating, discovering,
and managing the future.
Feb 2009 | BIL 2009. (VIDEO)
Evo
Devo Universe? (23 mins). A brief introduction to the concepts
of universal evolution and universal development, and some implications
of an evo devo universe to humanity, should this model be supported
by future science.
Jan 2009 | Mendoza Coll of Business, U. Notre Dame.
(VIDEO)
Foresight
Development in a World of Accelerating Change (1 hr, 27 mins).
Thoughts on strategies for innovation, learning, and sustainability
in a world of accelerating technological change. For business
students.
Oct 2008 | Evo Devo Universe 2008. (VIDEO)
Evo Devo
Universe 2008 (3 mins). A brief video intro to the First
International Conference on the Evolution and Development of the
Universe (Paris, France).
Oct 2008 | Memebox Scenario. (VIDEO)
The
Potential of 'Symbiont Networks' (3 mins). A symbiont network
is a coming personal networking platform, possible with today's
4G networks, that will allow far more lasting and fine-grained
behavioral change for individuals than is presently possible,
and a whole new level of collective intelligence and adaptiveness
for groups of cognitively diverse people who are connected as
a symbiont.
Feb 2008 | Metaverse Roadmap Summit (VIDEO)
The
Benefits and Challenges of Coming Metaverse Technologies (5
mins). Metaverse U's Henrik Bennetsen interviewing John Smart
on the future of metaverse technologies: virtual worlds, mirror
worlds, augmented reality, lifelogging, and other intimate fusions
of our physical and digital worlds.
Oct 2007 | Singularity Summit 2007. (VIDEO)
Speaking
to the Web: A Conversation with John Smart. (17 minutes).
Accelerating change, and the unique capacities and future of inner
space. Autonomy trends, the coming conversational interface, the
cybertwin, and the valuecosm.
May 2006 | Stanford Singularity Summit. (VIDEO)
Searching
for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change
(22 mins). An introduction to the investigation accelerating change
from a universal perspective.
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